Across 80 prompts, 11 brands, and 7 companies analyzed on ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude, the cookies category reveals a striking divergence between real-world shelf dominance and AI visibility. Brand Share weighs where in the AI response a brand appears and how much detail is given - not just whether it's mentioned. A brand featured prominently at the top with rich detail scores exponentially higher than one briefly listed at the end. By this measure, Tate's Bake Shop - a premium, specialty brand - commands 63.9% Brand Share on ChatGPT, dwarfing the category's real-world giant Oreo (8.8% on the same platform). Meanwhile, Oreo dominates Gemini at 46.2%. This platform split is the defining story: no single brand owns AI search across all three assistants. Critically, 100% of the 290 citations analyzed are third-party - meaning every brand's AI visibility is built entirely on earned media, not owned content.
| Rank | ChatGPT | Share | Gemini | Share | Claude | Share | Parent Co. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tate's Bake Shop | 63.9% | Oreo | 46.2% | Tate's Bake Shop | 34.9% | Mixed |
| 2 | Oreo | 8.8% | Tate's Bake Shop | 16.7% | Oreo | 30.7% | Mixed |
| 3 | Pepperidge Farm | 7.8% | Pepperidge Farm | 14.0% | Pepperidge Farm | 23.2% | Campbell Soup Company |
| 4 | Nature Valley | 6.8% | Famous Amos | 7.3% | Great Value | 8.9% | Mixed |
| 5 | Little Debbie | 4.5% | Nilla Wafers | 5.8% | Nutter Butter | 2.3% | Mixed |
Tate's Bake Shop, a premium specialty brand, captures 63.9% Brand Share on ChatGPT - more than 7x Oreo's share on the same platform. AI assistants appear to reward quality positioning and specificity over mass-market scale, inverting traditional FMCG market dynamics.
Oreo leads Gemini at 46.2% but scores only 8.8% on ChatGPT. Tate's Bake Shop leads ChatGPT at 63.9% but drops to 16.7% on Gemini. No brand dominates all three platforms simultaneously - a single-platform AI strategy leaves significant share on the table.
20 consumer questions - including high-intent comparisons like 'How do premium cookies compare to store brands?' - receive zero brand mentions across all three AI platforms. These are not niche queries; they are mainstream buying questions that every AI answers but no cookie brand has claimed.
Of 290 total citations analyzed, not a single one is brand-owned. Every brand's AI visibility is entirely dependent on third-party sources like cheryls.com, kingarthurbaking.com, and wikipedia.org. This means any brand's AI presence can erode if third-party coverage shifts.
Brand-level data reveals platform-specific winners, but company-level aggregation tells the more strategic story. Mondelez's three-brand portfolio generates an estimated combined share that rivals or exceeds any single competitor on Gemini - but that advantage collapses on ChatGPT. Understanding portfolio dynamics, not just individual brand performance, is the competitive edge.
Brand Share measures position-adjusted influence across AI responses - not just whether a brand is mentioned, but how prominently. The table below shows how the top brands' share varies across platforms, revealing platform-specific strategies and blind spots.
| Brand | Parent Co. | ChatGPT Share | Gemini Share | Claude Share | What This Means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tate's Bake Shop | Tate's Bake Shop | 63.9% | 16.7% | 34.9% | ChatGPT dominant at 63.9% but loses ground sharply on Gemini |
| Oreo | Mondelez | 8.8% | 46.2% | 30.7% | Gemini powerhouse at 46.2% but nearly invisible on ChatGPT |
| Pepperidge Farm | Campbell Soup Company | 7.8% | 14.0% | 23.2% | Most consistent cross-platform presence - strongest on Claude at 23.2% |
| Nature Valley | General Mills | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ChatGPT-only brand - completely absent on Gemini and Claude |
| Nilla Wafers | Mondelez | 0.0% | 5.8% | 0.0% | Gemini-exclusive visibility - zero share on ChatGPT and Claude |
| Great Value | Walmart | 3.5% | 1.6% | 8.9% | Claude specialist at 8.9% - underperforms on other platforms |
| Famous Amos | Ferrero | 1.7% | 7.3% | 0.0% | Gemini-focused at 7.3% with near-zero presence elsewhere |
Nature Valley ranks 10th by total mentions but 4th by Brand Share - a 6-rank gap that signals exceptional positioning efficiency on ChatGPT (6.8x efficiency score). When it appears, it dominates the response. But it appears on only one platform and in only one mention. For a CMO, this is a warning: high efficiency with near-zero reach is not a competitive position - it is a fragile foothold. The priority must be expanding the contexts in which Nature Valley earns mentions, particularly on Gemini and Claude where it is currently invisible.
Mondelez operates three brands in this category - Oreo, Nilla Wafers, and Nutter Butter - with an estimated combined Gemini share approaching 55%. Each brand serves a distinct consumer need: Oreo owns the sandwich cookie identity, Nilla Wafers captures dunking occasions, and Nutter Butter holds a niche flavor position. However, this portfolio advantage is platform-specific - on ChatGPT, combined share collapses to under 9%. Note: company-level shares are approximations as Brand Share is position-adjusted per response.
Ferrero holds two brands - Famous Amos and Keebler - with an estimated combined Gemini share near 13%. Both brands are essentially invisible on Claude and marginal on ChatGPT. Rather than a coordinated portfolio strategy, these brands appear to be competing for the same Gemini audience without differentiated positioning. Note: company-level shares are approximations.
In physical retail, more brands on shelf means more facings and more consumer choice moments. In AI search, the assistant recommends one answer - not a shelf. A portfolio of three brands does not guarantee three recommendations; it may generate one, or none. Mondelez's three-brand advantage on Gemini is real, but it requires each brand to own a distinct, defensible consumer question - not just exist in the category.
The AI consumer journey moves through three stages: Discovery (what are cookies?), Research (which cookies are best for my need?), and Decision (where do I buy them?). The funnel reveals a tale of two brands - Oreo dominates Discovery but bleeds share by Decision, while Tate's Bake Shop does the opposite, gaining strength as consumers move closer to purchase.
Tate's Bake Shop demonstrates a rare growth funnel on ChatGPT: share rises from 50.0% at Discovery to 59.5% at Research to 71.4% at Decision - a +21.4pp gain. On Claude, it similarly grows from 36.6% to 40.0% through the funnel. Oreo tells the opposite story: it commands 100% Discovery share on both Gemini and Claude, but loses -59.8pp on Gemini and -82.9pp on Claude by Decision stage. At Decision, Pepperidge Farm captures 18.9% on Gemini and 32.9% on Claude, while Great Value takes 10.0% on Claude and Famous Amos claims 12.6% on Gemini - all benefiting from Oreo's funnel collapse.
| Decision-Stage Prompt | ChatGPT Winner | Gemini Winner | Claude Winner | Winning Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where can I buy gluten free cookies? | Tate's Bake Shop (100%) | Tate's Bake Shop (77%) | Tate's Bake Shop (100%) | Attribute |
| Where can I find cookies seasonal varieties? | Pepperidge Farm (100%) | Oreo (100%) | Oreo (71%) | Occasion |
| Where can I buy organic cookies? | Nature Valley (100%) | - | - | Certification |
| Where can I find gourmet cookies? | Tate's Bake Shop (100%) | - | - | Craft |
| Where can I find sandwich cookies? | - | Oreo (70%) | - | Use-case |
| Where can I find chocolate chip cookies? | - | Famous Amos (65%) | - | Attribute |
| Should I buy name brand or store cookies brands? | - | Oreo (52%) | Oreo (50%) | Brand Identity |
Every Decision-stage winner in this category owns a specific, defensible consumer need. Tate's Bake Shop captures 100% share on gluten-free and gourmet queries on ChatGPT because it is the most specifically associated brand for those attributes. Pepperidge Farm owns seasonal varieties. Oreo owns sandwich cookies. The lesson for any CMO: broad category presence does not convert at Decision stage - specific attribute ownership does. Identify the two or three consumer needs your brand can own completely, and build content authority around those exact queries.
Across ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude, 32 individual prompt-platform combinations result in a single brand capturing 100% Brand Share. These are not competitive battles - they are uncontested territories. Some are identity monopolies that are structurally hard to break; others are content vacuums that any well-positioned brand could claim with the right content strategy.
Tate's Bake Shop holds monopoly positions across gluten-free, gourmet, sugar-free, vegan, and highest-quality prompts - primarily on ChatGPT. These are identity monopolies built on consistent quality positioning. Competitors entering these spaces must overcome deeply embedded AI associations, not just create content.
Oreo holds multiple Gemini monopolies across discovery and research prompts - including sandwich cookies, sugar-free, seasonal varieties, and most popular varieties. Pepperidge Farm (Campbell Soup) also holds monopolies on seasonal and deals prompts, representing coordinated category coverage across companies.
| Consumer Prompt | ChatGPT | Gemini | Claude | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where can I get gluten free cookies? | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | |
| Which cookies have the most real ingredients? | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | Keebler ✓ | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | Clean-label brands; ingredient-conscious consumers |
| How many calories are in average cookies? | - | Oreo ✓ | Oreo ✓ | |
| How much do cookies typically cost? | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | Oreo ✓ | - | |
| What are the most common cookie flavors? | - | Oreo ✓ | Oreo ✓ | |
| Where can I buy gluten free cookies? | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | - | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | |
| Where can I find cookies seasonal varieties? | Pepperidge Farm ✓ | Oreo ✓ | - | |
| Where can I find cookies sugar-free options? | Tate's Bake Shop ✓ | Oreo ✓ | - |
✓ = 100% monopoly. "-" = data not available for this platform.
The cookies category inverts the traditional FMCG playbook. Tate's Bake Shop - a brand with a fraction of Oreo's real-world distribution - holds more monopoly positions on ChatGPT because AI rewards specific category authority, not broad awareness. When an AI assistant is asked 'Where can I find gourmet cookies?' it does not recommend the most-advertised brand; it recommends the brand most specifically associated with gourmet quality in its training data. The strategic implication: any brand that builds deep, specific authority around two or three consumer needs can achieve monopoly positions that are disproportionate to its market size.
Each AI assistant has developed distinct recommendation biases in the cookies category. ChatGPT rewards premium craft positioning, Gemini favors heritage mass-market brands, and Claude balances quality with value pragmatism. Understanding these personalities is essential for platform-specific content strategy.
ChatGPT disproportionately rewards premium and craft-positioned brands. Tate's Bake Shop earns a 1.7x affinity score - the highest in the category - reflecting ChatGPT's bias toward quality-forward, ingredient-focused brands. Brands seeking ChatGPT visibility should emphasize artisan credentials, real ingredients, and premium positioning in their content.
Gemini favors heritage and iconic brands with strong cultural recognition. Famous Amos (1.6x) and Oreo (1.6x) both earn strong affinity scores, suggesting Gemini rewards brands with long-established consumer associations and broad cultural footprints. Keebler also earns 1.3x affinity, reinforcing the heritage pattern.
Claude rewards value-conscious and broadly accessible brands. Great Value earns a 1.9x affinity score - the highest single-platform affinity in the dataset - while Pepperidge Farm earns 1.5x. Claude appears to balance quality with accessibility, making it the platform where value-positioned and mid-tier brands have the strongest competitive opportunity.
Showing 5 of 20 consumer questions that appear across all 3 AI assistants where no tracked brand is mentioned on any platform. These are true content vacuums:
| Consumer Question | Journey Stage | Content Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Should I buy cookies online or in stores? | Decision | Channel decision query; high commercial intent |
| How do gluten-free cookies compare? | Research | Gluten-free comparison; high purchase-intent void |
| How do organic cookies compare in taste? | Research | Organic taste authority; educational gap for premium brands |
| How do premium cookies compare to store brands? | Research | High-intent comparison; premium vs. store brand buyers |
| How do protein cookies compare to regular ones? | Research | Emerging protein snack segment; first-mover advantage |
20 consumer questions receive zero brand mentions across all three AI platforms. These are true content vacuums - not because the questions are obscure, but because no cookie brand has published authoritative content to fill them. A single well-structured piece of content addressing 'How do premium cookies compare to store brands?' or 'Should I buy cookies online or in stores?' could capture visibility across ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude simultaneously. No competition means first-mover advantage compounds over time as AI models reinforce early associations.
Brand Share shows who AI recommends. Citation analysis shows why - revealing the sources AI models use to inform their recommendations.
| Brand | Most Cited Content | Platforms | Cited in Answers To | Citations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Value | walmart.com | Gemini | Where can I find sandwich cookies? | 1 |
With 0% owned citations across all 290 analyzed, every brand in the cookies category is entirely dependent on third-party content for AI visibility. This means no brand controls its own AI narrative. If key third-party sources shift their coverage - or begin favoring competitors - any brand's AI presence can erode without warning. Building owned citation assets is an uncontested strategic opportunity in this category.
| Region | Top Sources (citations) |
|---|---|
| Singapore | thewholekitchen.com.sg (3), womensweekly.com.sg (2), guiltfreefood.sg (2) |
| United Kingdom | cam.ac.uk (2), english-heritage.org.uk (1), mindfuleating.org.uk (1) |
| Canada | everydayglutenfreegourmet.ca (2), ellegourmet.ca (1), shopcoco.ca (1) |
| Australia | justlittleluxuries.com.au (2), hellocookieco.com.au (1), nbia.org.au (1) |
| India | prizi.in (1) |
| South Korea | koryomart.co.kr (1) |
Regional citation patterns reveal meaningful international demand signals. Singapore contributes citations from thewholekitchen.com.sg, womensweekly.com.sg, and coldstorage.com.sg, while the UK contributes from cam.ac.uk and mindfuleating.org.uk. Brands with international ambitions should note that AI assistants in these markets may be drawing on local sources - creating both a risk and an opportunity for region-specific content investment.
The cookies category has a striking citation structure: 289 third-party citations drive all AI visibility, with only 1 brand-owned citation in the entire dataset (Great Value via walmart.com on Gemini). Brands like Tate's Bake Shop that command 63.9% Brand Share on ChatGPT are doing so entirely on the strength of earned media - reviews, editorial coverage, and food publications. This validates the earned media model but also exposes a structural risk: high Brand Share built on zero owned citations is a house of cards if third-party sentiment shifts.
| Channel | Top Sources | Prompts | Strategic Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty Bakeries & Cookie Brands | cheryls.com, levainbakery.com, hillcountrychocolate.com, ohmygoodness.co | 14 | Artisan bakery coverage drives premium brand associations across platforms |
| Food & Baking Media | kingarthurbaking.com, redpathsugar.com, thekitchn.com, thewholekitchen.com.sg | 17 | Recipe and ingredient authority sites are primary AI citation sources |
| Video & Social Platforms | youtube.com, reddit.com | 9 | User-generated content and video reviews influence AI recommendations |
| Reference & Knowledge | wikipedia.org | 5 | Wikipedia presence builds baseline brand credibility across all platforms |
| Health & Nutrition Authority | nih.gov, harvard.edu | 7 | Academic health sources drive better-for-you and dietary cookie queries |
| Travel & Lifestyle Media | travelandleisureasia.com | 3 | Lifestyle editorial coverage extends cookie brand reach to gifting and travel occasions |
cheryls.com and kingarthurbaking.com each appear across 6 prompts - the broadest citation footprint in the dataset. youtube.com covers 5 prompts. These three domains represent the highest-leverage outreach targets: a single placement or feature on any of them can influence AI responses across multiple consumer queries simultaneously. Brands should prioritize earned coverage on these platforms before pursuing long-tail sources.
Different citation channels serve different AI query types. Health and nutrition sources (nih.gov, harvard.edu) drive better-for-you and dietary queries - brands with health credentials should pursue academic and clinical coverage. Specialty bakery sites drive premium and gourmet queries. Food media drives recipe and ingredient authority. A channel-matched content strategy ensures brand mentions appear in the right context for the right consumer question.
In a category where 100% of citations are third-party, earned media is not a supporting tactic - it is the entire AI visibility strategy. A single feature on kingarthurbaking.com or cheryls.com can be cited across 6 different consumer queries on multiple platforms. The multiplier effect is real: one piece of earned media, placed on the right domain, compounds into AI visibility across the full consumer journey - from Discovery through Decision stage.
| Archetype | Who You Are | Immediate Priority |
|---|---|---|
| Premium / Craft Leader | Tate's Bake Shop, Pepperidge Farm | Defend ChatGPT monopoly positions by building owned citation assets. Tate's Bake Shop holds 100% share on gluten-free and gourmet queries but has zero owned citations - third-party dependency is the single biggest risk to this leadership position. |
| Heritage / Mass-Market Brand | Oreo, Famous Amos, Keebler | Fix the funnel collapse at Decision stage. Oreo loses up to 82.9pp from Discovery to Decision on Claude - competitors like Pepperidge Farm and Great Value are capturing that abandoned share. Decision-stage content investment is the immediate priority. |
| Value / Retail Brand | Great Value, Little Debbie | Capitalize on Claude's 1.9x affinity for value brands. Great Value earns 8.9% Brand Share on Claude but is nearly absent on ChatGPT and Gemini - cross-platform expansion requires content that bridges value positioning with quality signals. |
20 brand-void prompts represent zero-competition territory across all three platforms. One authoritative content piece per void fills the gap simultaneously on ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude. First-mover advantage in content vacuums compounds over time.
With 0% owned citations category-wide, any brand that publishes authoritative, citable content gains a structural advantage. Own your AI narrative before a third party defines it for you.
Decision-stage monopolies are won by specific attribute ownership, not broad awareness. One 100% monopoly is worth more than 20 also-mentioned appearances - identify two or three ownable consumer needs and dominate them.
cheryls.com and kingarthurbaking.com each span 6 prompts. A single earned placement on either domain influences AI responses across the full consumer journey - from discovery through purchase decision.
AI search is a growing but not yet dominant discovery channel. Weight these insights relative to your overall channel mix - but note that AI visibility patterns, once established, tend to entrench over time.
(1) AI visibility rewards specific category authority over broad brand awareness, inverting traditional FMCG market dynamics.
(2) No brand dominates all three platforms - a single-platform AI strategy leaves significant share uncontested.
(3) 20 brand-void prompts represent uncontested territory where first-mover content investment faces zero competition.
(4) With 0% owned citations, every brand's AI presence is structurally dependent on third-party coverage it does not control.
(5) Decision-stage monopolies are achievable for any brand that builds deep, specific authority around two or three consumer needs.